Sunday, February 16, 2014

2014


It's been some time that I been updating this blog.

Looking back at 2013, my portfolio is still doing well generating some passive income (at least better than bank rates).

Hence my strategy for 2014 will:

- invest regularly on monthly basis as much as possible
- selectively participate in rights issue
- continue building war chest and use opportunities to add (i.e. recent CNY correction)

Also like to share this article that I read recently from The Wealth Journey.  http://seekingalpha.com/article/2009931-why-im-a-passive-investor-and-you-should-be-too?

A little preview
The More Important Game of Life
While the evidence is overwhelming that passive investing is the winning investment strategy, it's also the winning strategy in the far more important game of life. Here's why.
As a passive investor, when I come home from my busy day, I get to sit down with a glass of wine and ask my wife about her day and how my kids and grandchildren are doing. Because I didn't spend my time trying to beat the market, I also got to coach my youngest daughter's softball, soccer and basketball teams. I also read 50 to 70 books each year, do community service, play tennis, and focus on the other really important things in my life.
Investors following an active management strategy spend much of their precious leisure time watching the latest business news, studying the latest charts, reading financial trade publications, and so on. Even if they are among the few who are successful at the active management game of generating alpha (performance above risk-adjusted benchmarks), the "price" of success may have been that they lost the far more important game of life.
The question for you to consider is what are the important things in your life? Is it trying to generate extra returns through active management strategies that require you to "invest" large amounts of your time? Or are the important things in your life time spent with your loved ones, on your faith, your education, your dreams, a worthy cause, teaching or mentoring others? If you don't already know the answer, perhaps this story will help you find it.

Blessed day!

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Sunday, January 27, 2013

New Links

Hi all,
Added a couple of new links.  One is 'The Finance' which collates recently posted blogs on Personal Finance.  The other is 'A Singaporean Stock Investor' which I been reading on a regular basis and in some ways similar investing strategy.

Note that this is not a recommendation, we are on our own still responsible for our actions.

Blessed day !

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Monday, January 10, 2011

2011 - What's the plan?

Received these motivational messages from my wife -

"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die tomorrow."  ~James Dean

"Having visual images of your dreams, goals and heart's desire helps manifest them in your life."  ~BJ Gallagher


As stewards,  I think having some goals in this area is useful.  Some of mine are :
  1. Continue investing a little by little - with xx amount in mind.
  2. Reduce or minimise buying from the market - particular at this time where value stocks are getting fewer - there are still some though.
  3. Continue to participate in certain companies through rights issues.
Still not sure of what to set - here are some for reference:
Blessed day !

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Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Keep it Simple

Interesting article on Sunday Times - Keep it Simple...

I like the article as it reminds of the principles and values that I am learning and applying since the start of this blog. 

Blessed day and Happy New Year !
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Keep it simple in the Golden Tiger Year


By Goh Eng Yeow



Past Tiger Years have marked milestones in my life and it is with anticipation - and some trepidation - that I await the arrival of the Golden Tiger Year next Sunday and what it might hold for me.

I started working in a Tiger Year - 1986 - just as Singapore was fighting off what was then its worst economic slowdown since it achieved independence 21 years before.

That calamitous experience shaped my working attitude for life. Jobs were scarce, and even graduates with good grades were competing for jobs which paid them less than $1,000 a month.

The uncertainties encapsulated for me early on the importance of setting aside some savings every month for the proverbial rainy day.

Around this time, I was introduced to the joys of investing, quite by chance, when I bought 1,000 Singapore Bus Services shares in order to qualify for the concessionary bus passes which the transport company had offered its shareholders.

I have kept the investment until now and it has multiplied due to stock splits and bonus issues over the years to 16,040 ComfortDelGro shares, as the company is now called, and 1,200 SBS Transit shares.

This part about Comfort reminds me of the ST Eng shares that I used to have and then sold it.  My father still have them and they also 'multipled'.

The next Tiger Year - 1998 - coincided with the Asian financial crisis which bankrupted businesses across Asia as they struggled to cope with the plummeting Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah.

Ordinary investors like myself found it agonising to watch our painfully accumulated nest eggs dwindle to a fraction of their original value as blue chips were lashed by the crisis hitting the region.

At that time, I had in my possession some shares in the now defunct Overseas Union Bank (OUB), which I had bought a decade earlier. As OUB's price plunged and the value of my investment fell by half, it badly shook my belief about buying blue chips to keep as long-term investments.

Fortunately, there was a happy twist to the story. Investors who kept faith with OUB during those dark days were compensated handsomely when United Overseas Bank (UOB) bought the bank for $10 billion three years later.

As I await the arrival of yet another Tiger Year, I find myself taking stock of the hits and misses in my investment portfolio, as the market succumbs to fresh turmoil due to fears that some European countries may default on their debts.

'Buy and hold' has always been my approach and it has worked well despite the three major financial upheavals in the past 15 years - the Asian banking crisis in 1998, the dot.com bust in 2000 and the United States sub-prime crisis in 2007.

Squirrelling away money into high-dividend-paying counters such as Hong Leong Finance and Cerebos Pacific has reaped huge rewards. For a few investments, I have more than recouped my initial capital outlay from the accumulated dividend payouts over the years.

As a conservative investor, I find that it pays to stick to a few simple objectives like realistic investment expectations and a reasonable timeframe to give the investment time to work out.


Buy 'quality' stocks


If you buy quality companies, you would not be tempted to sell when the market suddenly dips and the airwaves are filled with tales of gloom and doom - like during the recent global financial crisis.

Take our well-run local banks. It was business as usual for them in the past two years, even as banks elsewhere were under pressure from the global credit crunch.

And rather than collect their dividends in cash, shareholders of OCBC stood solidly behind the bank and gave it a big vote of confidence by taking up the payout in shares instead since being given the option last year.

It turns on its head the argument that cash is king during troubled times



Trust the explosive power of compounding


Investors have often been sold the idea of how compounding the returns on their investments could help them to build their wealth faster. Set aside $3,000 a month and earn a 10 per cent return a year and it will grow to $1 million in 40 years.

In practice, this idea is sometimes difficult to implement, but there are ways to go about doing it in the stock market.

For decades, banking giant HSBC Holdings has offered investors the option to collect dividends in shares, rather than cash - and many of them have ridden on the coat-tails of the bank to riches, doing so as it expands its global reach.

A few firms have upped the ante and refined HSBC's winning formula. In its past two dividend payouts, OCBC gave shareholders the choice to convert the dividends into shares at a 10 per cent discount from the market price.



Set aside at least 10 per cent of income as savings


Being frugal is the cornerstone to wealth-building. The rationale is simple: nothing saved equals nothing invested equals nothing for retirement.

One trait among successful businessmen is their thriftiness - with many of them living well below their means.

Some will argue, however, that there are few incentives to save, with banks paying a paltry 0.125 per cent interest on savings.

But keeping money in the bank is not necessarily the only option for savers. You can park your cash in the form of preference stocks issued by UOB and OCBC, which work like bonds and offer a dividend payout of about 5 per cent.

In a nutshell, I will keep my investment strategy simple, pick up bargains for the long term and enjoy doing what I love: Grabbing a beer - a Tiger - as I reunite with old friends in the coming Chinese New Year week.

Remember there are far more important things in life - loved ones, family, hobbies, movies, sports. Gong xi fa cai.

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Related articles:

1.  Compound Interest
2.  Managing money based on the oldest best selling manual
3.  The Master and the steward
4.  Diversification and statistics

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Monday, December 14, 2009

What are Right issues?

This is some thing that I been looking into.  There are several sites that provide information of rights.  They are:

1.  Sgfunds
2.  Central Depository

I found this from VR -zone that explains it quite well too.
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What are right issues?


Under a secondary market offering or seasoned equity offering of shares to raise money, a company can opt for a rights issue to raise capital. The rights issue is a special form of shelf offering or shelf registration. With the issued rights, existing shareholders have the privilege to buy a specified number of new shares from the firm at a specified price within a specified time. A rights issue is offered to all existing shareholders individually and may be rejected, accepted in full or accepted in part. Rights are often transferable, allowing the holder to sell them on the open market.

To issue rights the financial manager has to consider:

1. Subscription price per new share
2. Number of new shares to be sold
3. The value of rights
4. The effect of rights on the value of the current share
5. The effect of rights to existing and new shareholders

A right to a share is generally issued on a ratio basis (e.g. one-for-three rights issue). Because the company receives shareholders' money in exchange for shares, a rights issue is a source of capital.

Rights issues may be underwritten. The role of the underwriter is to guarantee that the funds sought by the company will be raised. The agreement between the underwriter and the company is set out in a formal underwriting agreement. Typical terms of an underwriting require the underwriter to subscribe for any shares offered but not taken up by shareholders. The underwriting agreement will normally enable the underwriter to terminate its obligations in defined circumstances. A sub-underwriter in turn sub-underwrites some or all of the obligations of the main underwriter; the underwriter passes its risk to the sub-underwriter by requiring the sub-underwriter to subscribe for or purchase a portion of the shares for which the underwriter is obliged to subscribe in the event of a shortfall. Underwriters and sub-underwriters may be financial institutions, stock-brokers, major shareholders of the company or other related or unrelated parties. The Panel’s guidance covers both non-underwritten and underwritten rights issues.

Basic example

An investor: Mr. A had 100 shares of company X at a total investment of $40,000, assuming he purchased the shares at $400 per share.

Assuming a 1:1 rights issue at an offer price of $200, Mr. A will have the option to subscribe to additional 100 shares of the company at the offer price. Now, if he exercises his option, he would have to pay an additional $20,000 in order to acquire the shares, thus effectively bringing his average cost of acquisition for the 200 shares to $300 per share ((40,000+20,000)/200=300). Although the price on the stock markets should reflect a new price of $300 (see below), the investor is actually not making any profit nor any loss.

What this means is that you have been “forced” to pump in more of your money just to maintain your ownership of the company.

The company: Company X has 100 million outstanding shares. The share price currently quoted on the stock exchanges is $400 thus the market capitalization of the stock would be $40 billion (outstanding shares times share price).

If all the shareholders of the company choose to exercise their stock option, the company's outstanding shares would increase to 200 million. The market capitalization of the stock would increase to $60 billion (previous market capitalization + cash received from owners of rights converting their rights to shares), implying a share price of $300 ($60 billion / 200 million shares). If the company were to do nothing with the raised money, its Earnings per share (EPS) would be reduced by half. However, if the equity raised by the company is reinvested (e.g. to acquire another company), the EPS may be impacted depending upon the outcome of the reinvestment.

Example: CCT ISSUES RIGHTS


CapitaCommercial Trust (C61U.SG) said Friday that it will offer 1.4 billion units under a rights issue to raise about S$828.3 million. The trust will offer one rights unit for every existing unit at S$0.59 each, it said in a statement. Units of CapitaCommercial closed Thursday at S$1.06 each. Proceeds will be used to reduce borrowings, and for general corporate and working capital purposes. CapitaCommercial is managed by CapitaCommercial Trust Management Ltd., which is an indirect wholly owned unit of CapitaLand Ltd. (C31.SG). The rights issue is fully underwritten. DBS Bank Ltd., Cazenove & Co. (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. and United Overseas Bank Ltd. are the joint lead managers and underwriters, the trust said.


The reasons for doing so is to reduce their gearing, improve financial flexibility by boosting its balance sheet and improving its credit profile. According to Daiwa Institute of Research, CCT is building up capacity to refinance debt and creating a buffer against potential asset write-downs. What this simply means, is that CCT’s assets (their buildings) are falling in value and are raising more capital in order to build more confidence with their existing or future lenders and to prevent early redemption of loans for etc their $885million due next year in 2010.


WHAT TO DO NOW?

Basically there are only three decisions for the unit holder to decide. Either..

1)Activate your rights issue
2)Sell your rights issue.
3)Sell everything.

Do give me the opportunity to explain the process of each decision in detail to the best of my knowledge

Take for example you bought CCT at 0.70 per share in march 2009, say you bought 10 lots, spends a total of $7000 barring out all commission and extra transaction cost to make things simple. So, initially your expected yield from CCT for FY 2009 is $1200 which is 17.1%


Now, if you choose decision 1) which is to activate your rights issue, you have to spend another (0.59*10,000)= $5,900. The rights issue share price of 0.59 represents a 44% discount to the stock’s last traded price of $1.06


And a discount of 61% discount to their new estimated calculated NAV figure of $1.51 after taking into account the revaluation and completion of the rights.


Therefore in total you spent $12,900 in order to maintain both your expected yield % for FY 2009 which is $1200 and margin of safety to NAV. And if you have noticed, the % yield has dropped from 17.1% to a mere 9% , this is because i did not factor in any positive effect coming from the extra capital that will help CCT this year or in the future, just to be conservative. Therefore the downside here is, the opportunity cost , what you can do with the $5,900 if you didn't put it into the rights?


Ok, now.. if you choose decision 2) which is to sell your rights issue, then you need not spend $5,900 and he initially get the extra profit if he sells his right at $1.06? WRONG! The stock market will not be soo stupid to maintain the share price of CCT at $1.06, my good guess is that the market will pressure the share price of CCT to about $0.80-0.91 at best. So, if we assume that the share price of CCT after their trading halt is lifted at $0.80, the profit made from selling his rights would probably amount to ($0.80-$0.59= $0.21*10,000 = $2,100). Looks like a good decision to make right? Can save the extra $5,900 plus get another extra $2,100 from selling his rights. However... if he decides to sell, he compromises his dividend yield for FY 2009 and the future years for holding CCT. His expected dividend yield will fall 50% from getting $1200 to getting only $600 for FY 2009 and for the rest of the years. Your margin of safty from NAV was intially 75%, will drop to 53% , this then is evident of dilution.


Finally, if you choose decision 3) which is to sell everything, you probably earned, assuming share price of CCT is 0.80 after trading halt , [(0.10*10,000)+(0.21*10,000)]= $3,100 , you get back roughly $3,100 in pure profits and no worries of any exposure to things related to CCT. CCT also will have no worry to you dividends for the future years to come. All is settled,closed and silent


To decide which decision creates more value for the holder, it has to be determined by the investor him or herself. It all boils down to whether you still have confidence in CCT's growth and business model and assets.

As for me, lets look at the reasons why i bought CCT in the first place.

1) Want to gain exposure to Singapore’s rental of Office buildings, mainly banking, insurance and financial sector. In addition, a bit of Malaysia’s rental business

2) This Trust has formidable reputation with strong backing from parent company CapitaLand

3) This enables the trust to easily obtain loans, like the recent $580million using one building as collateral. Refinancing in this credit crunch environment is supposedly not a problem.

4) Past performance reviews consistent increase in revenue/profit margin and operational cash flow. Note that these are bull years, might be misleading.

5) It is also known that the trust builds good relationships with their clients

6) Their clients’ a.k.a tenants are well known and respected, like GIC, Starhub, JP Morgon, Standard Charted Bank (Big client with 15.2%)

7) Potential Upside in the future, involves increasing of rent rates (cause theirs is low as compared to market rates $7.18 vs. $11.40 psf), growth in further acquisitions in the future via Asia or mainly Malaysia.

So, since they issues the rights at 0.59 per share..should i choice 1)? 2)? 3)? Hahah :]
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Blessed day !

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Monday, October 5, 2009

Diversification Statistics

Always wanted to know the statistic behind diversification and found this information in Joel Greenblatt's book, You Can Be a Stock Market Genius. He provides the following statistics by owning the following number of stocks:

2 stocks eliminates 46% of non-market risk of just owning one stock
4 stocks eliminates 72% of the risk
8 stocks eliminates 81% of the risk
16 stocks eliminates 93% of the risk
32 stocks eliminates 96% of the risk
500 stocks eliminates 99% of the risk

Now to do the mathematical calculatons to confirm his statistics.

Have a blessed day.

For a man's ways are in full view of the Lord, and he examines all his paths - Prov 5:21


Also read:

Diversification

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Diversification

I read from ChristianPF a interesting article on diversification based on the word of God and would like to share it with you.

Blessed day!

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Diversification strategy from the Bible
http://www.christianpf.com/diversification-strategy-from-the-bible/

One of the common tenents of safe and prudent investing has been to keep your investments properly diversified. If you think about it a little bit, it is really common sense if you are trying to minimize risk. Why have all your eggs in one basket, when you can have them spread around into 7-8 baskets. That way if one of them falls, you can still make some scrambled eggs for breakfast!

I get such a kick out of it when I find scriptures that are still amazingly relevant to our lives today that were written thousands of years ago. Hurray for the timelessness of the Bible!

Diversification scripture

Solomon actually left us with some investment advice about proper diversification in Ecclesiates 11:2

“Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”

So, this is great that the Bible has specific advice about diversifying, but it gets better… I just
finished reading an article by Robert Katz in which he was talking about this same verse of scripture mentioned above. Robert goes on to talk about a recent study that was done comparing a variety of asset allocation (or diversification) strategies over the last 37 years to see how they compare…

Dr. Israelsen had decided to study various asset allocations, such as a
one-asset portfolio (all cash), two-asset portfolios (cash and bonds),
three-asset portfolios (cash,bonds and large U.S. stocks), etc., up to
seven-asset classportfolios. He also studied traditional portfolio mixes, such
as 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds, or 40 percent stocks and 60 percent
bonds. He studied a total of ten possible portfolio combinations. He then
compiled statistical data on each portfolio for the last thirty-seven years to
see which would produce the highest return on your investments with the lowest
amount of risk.

Here is the truly amazing part that was like an arrow of revelation hitting
me as I read his study. The absolute best portfolio allocation, providing an
average yield of 11.25% over thirty-seven years with the lowest standard
deviations for risk, was the portfolio that included all seven assets
. In fact, with this portfolio, the chance of losing 10 percent or more of the value of
your portfolio in any one year was zero.

I love when Science “discovers” something that has been in the Bible for thousands of years.

The seven asset classes

Now Solomon didn’t specify which asset classes to invest in, so we have to take care of that part ourselves. Robert has seven that he recommends and I assume that he talks about this in his book The Solomon Portfolio but his recommended seven asset classes are…
  1. Large-cap U.S. stocks
  2. Small-cap U.S. stocks
  3. Non-U.S.stocks
  4. Commodities
  5. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
  6. Intermediate bonds
  7. Cash
According to Robert all seven investments should be made and maintained in equal portions.

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